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Table of Contents
Memories of the Bureau, 1946 to 1962 Foreword Terminology Prologue Preface Chapter 1: The Warren Years, 1946 to 1950 Chapter 2: International Meteorology Chapter 3: The Timcke Years, 1950 to 1955 Chapter 4: A Year at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology Chapter 5: The Dwyer Years, 1955 to 1962 Leonard Joseph DwyerA Complex Character Reorganising the Bureau Public Weather Services Forecasts for the General Public Importance of Radio Stations The Advent of Television Automatic Telephone Forecast Service Beacons Wording and Verification of Forecasts Warnings Services for Aviation Atomic Weapons Tests Atomic Weapons TestsMosaic G1 and G2 Atomic Weapons TestsBuffalo 1, 2, 3 and 4 Atomic Weapons TestsOperations Antler, 2 and 3 Atomic Weapons TestsMinor Trials Instruments and Observations Radiosondes Radar/Radio Winds and Radar Weather Watch Automatic Weather Stations Sferics Meteorological Satellites Telecommunications Tropical Cyclones Bureau Conference on Tropical Cyclones International Symposium on Tropical Cyclones, Brisbane Hydrometeorology Design of Water Storages, Etc Flood Forecasting Cloud Seeding Reduction of Evaporation Rain Seminar Cloud Physics Fire Weather Research and Special Investigations International Activities The International Geophysical Year The Antarctic and Southern Ocean International Symposium on Antarctic Meteorology International Antarctic Analysis Centre ADP, EDP and Computers Training Publications Management Conference Services Conference CSIRO and the Universities Achievements of the Dwyer Years Chapter 6: A Springboard for the Future Appendix 1: References Appendix 2: Reports, Papers, Manuscripts Appendix 3: Milestones Appendix 4: Acknowledgements Appendix 5: Summary by H. N. Warren of the Operation of the Meteorological Section of Allied Air Headquarters, Brisbane, 194245 Endnotes Index Search Help Contact us |
Cloud Seeding (continued)I recall that during a discussion of cloud seeding at a meeting of State and Commonwealth Ministers who were members of the Water Resources Council (which I attended as a member of the Council's Standing Committee), Bill Borthwick, Minister for State Rivers and Water Supply for Victoria said "I know that Bill Gibbs has his doubts about the efficiency of cloud seeding but we think we will give it a go". Later in discussing the matter privately with me he said "look Bill, if we are having a drought I will back any remote possibility that seeding will increase rainfall as long as I know that seeding will not decrease it". I appreciated his situation as a politician besieged by drought-stricken farmers. I refrained from informing him that the CSIRO had privately declared that their seeding in the New England region may have decreased rainfall.The essence of this whole debate has been pointed out by Gerry O'Mahony with reference to a CSIRO cloud seeding exercise in western Victoria. To obtain a reliable assessment of the effect of cloud seeding it is necessary to have a well-designed and well-instrumented experiment with a sufficient number of randomised 'seeding' and 'no seeding' occasions. Gerry believes that for such an experiment in the Western District to be meaningful, it would need to run for many years. My judgement is that to obtain significant increases in rainfall by artificial means it is necessary to modify cloud dynamics to the extent that condensation rates are significantly increased. Although cloud seeding will modify condensation processes under certain conditions any increase in the amount of precipitation is likely to be very small. Cloud seeding may cause small increases in precipitation in certain areas under certain conditions but the amount of increase is unlikely to be worth the expenditure necessary to finance the operation. As Gerry O'Mahony has demonstrated, and as the WMO Panel of Experts on which Jack Warner served in the early 1980s concluded, the complexity of the rain process is such that the prospect of obtaining a conclusive answer on the question of the effectiveness of cloud seeding is quite remote.
People in Bright Sparcs - Dwyer, Leonard Joseph; O'Mahony, Gerard (Gerry)
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