The second reason for confidence in the future achievements of agricultural research is based on the expected growth of radically new and excitingly different scientific opportunities that have recently become available to research scientists. The results of basic research continually serve to open up new possibilities for the applied scientist, and the most outstanding contemporary examples of this dependence of technological progress upon more theoretical advances are found in the application in farming of computerised simulation models and recombinant deoxyribonucleic acid (genetic engineering).

Because the biological and economic risks in farming are so high and profit margins are increasingly small, it is extremely important that management decisions should be correct and that, in making them, the vast and ever-increasing mass of available technical information should be appropriately taken into account. Although it is not possible to accommodate all the interacting components of any particular farming system within a single management policy or program, research has already demonstrated that it is possible to identify the most important factors and to assess and relate them through a series of mathematical equations. When computerised and used by a farmer, the resulting model can indicate the impact that a change in one aspect of the system will have on the production and profitability of the system as a whole.

Research undertaken jointly by the NSW Department of Agriculture and CSIRO, for example, has resulted in the development of a computerised management system, called SIRATAC, which is now used in making management decisions which affect a large part of Australia's total cotton production. Field studies have shown that SIRATAC-managed crops yield as well as conventionally managed cotton, but involve fewer insecticidal sprays and result in higher profits.

Similar mathematical programs are now being introduced for the more efficient management of irrigated and dryland crops and pastures throughout many parts of Australia. For example, SIRAGCROP is being developed to assess the optimal management requirements of irrigated wheat and associated summer crops, particularly in relation to the control of salinity in the MurrayDarling Basin. GRAZPLAN has been designed to rationalise and evaluate the long-term decisions taken by graziers when managing their cattle and sheep. LAMBALIVE quantifies the effects of climate, ewe conditions and reproductive performance on the survival rates of lambs born at specific times of the year. GRASSGRO predicts the effects of climatic changes on pasture growth, while GRAZFEED relates pasture availability to the nutritional needs of specific classes of grazing animal. The number and accuracy of such simulation models will certainly increase in the future and, in doing so, will enable the managers of differing farming systems to incorporate the most up-to-date and essential information, biological and economic, in their decisions.

Australian Academy of Technological Sciences and Engineering