This heightened public interest reflects greater understanding of the climate (e.g., effects of enhanced greenhouse gases, El Niņo—Southern Oscillation), improved (faster) monitoring of climate change and variations, and better systems for dissemination of climate information (television, World Wide Web), as well as increased recognition of the impact of climate variations on society and the economy. All these developments mean that climate science is now 'operational' in the same sense as operational short-range weather monitoring and prediction. Many of these developments are leading to competition in climate science. Many organisations now have the technical capabilities and computing power to monitor and predict climate variations. Harnessing the skills of various organisations with an interest in operational climatology should lead to benefits for Australia, as well as for the individual organisations.

The changes in operational climatology can be demonstrated through examining responses to various El Niņo—Southern Oscillation episodes. Before the 1972/73 episode, understanding of the effect of the El Niņo—Southern Oscillation on Australia was limited, although earlier scientists had studied the problem. Studies in the 1970s and 1980s documented its effects, but even the 1982/83 event caught Australia by surprise, partly because systems were not in place to allow the rapid monitoring of the El Niņo—Southern Oscillation phenomenon. By the El Niņo events of the early 1990s, a routine seasonal climate prediction service, based on the earlier work on the El Niņo—Southern Oscillation, had been established, and routine monitoring was possible. By this time, for instance, buoys moored across the equatorial Pacific allowed the daily monitoring of surface and subsurface temperatures. As well, computer models (as well as statistical models) capable of predicting some aspects of the phenomenon were in place. All this means that we now truly have an 'operational climatology' capability, analogous to the operational short-range weather prediction, with real-time climate monitoring, scientifically based prediction and rapid dissemination of these products.

Changes in technology have meant changes in the organisations undertaking 'operational climatology'. In 1946 climate monitoring was labour-intensive. Even with the introduction of computers in the 1960s, the costs of archiving and analysis and display meant that it would have been very expensive for other organisations to duplicate the climate monitoring functions undertaken by the Bureau of Meteorology. Now, however, the feasibility of remote access to data archives, along with faster (and cheaper) computing and communications, has meant that many organisations can duplicate the role of the Bureau, while adding their expertise to the field of climatology. Agricultural organisations, for instance, can utilise their knowledge of aspects of drought other than rainfall shortages in monitoring drought. The future of operational climatology offers the prospect of many organisations in the field, tailoring their products to suit their specific customers.

Bureau of Meteorology