Tropical Forecasting in New Guinea, October 1943-February 1945 (continued)

We would all gather in their office at 0400 hours each day to consider the likely weather pattern over the operations area for that day—or for the immediate future say the next 48 hours—so that we could advise our several squadrons where strikes would be most appropriate. At first we would examine what reports and isobaric charts were available. Of course we had no observing stations at that time north of New Guinea where Japanese power was paramount, and that meant we had no atmospheric pressures from which we might draw an isobaric chart. Our American friends compensated for this by covering one long wall with charts of Northern Australia, New Guinea and the entire South-west Pacific. These large charts were repeated four times, and on the perspex covering them were plotted with chinagraph pencils reports from aircraft in flight and ships. These four charts were labelled midnight-0600 hours, 0600-12 noon, 12 noon-1800, and 1800-midnight, each being assigned a different colour. Before us, therefore, were set out reports over a very wide area for the previous 24 hours, only as dependable as were those aircrew who reported them, but always a very valuable aid. Following close examination of these reports we would all contribute to the construction of forecasts for the area, the discussion always being most stimulating. We were a serious as well as happy-go-lucky group, doing our best to get it right, but realising the limitations of our situation. We had to be humble in the light of mistakes, which were usually not critical. I vividly remember, however, the way the senior officers winced when someone mentioned 'Black Friday', a day when all airstrips throughout New Guinea were closed by bad weather, contrary to forecast, and many aircraft were lost. As my office moved westward along the coast in the later months of 1944, although I had not been involved in 'Black Friday', this was always in my mind, particularly when forecasting for night weather reconnaissance over the sea. Because of diurnal wind and temperature variations, cloud frequently built up just off the coast during the evening, producing coastal showers of varying intensity as the night wore on. To meet this situation, I would try accurately to predict the time the showers occurred over the airstrip, and then ensure that their ETA was before the showers. I could not advise against flying unless the weather was bad, because there were still Japanese ships and patrol boats not far from the coast, hoping to land supplies to their thousands of troops trapped along the Sepik River.

Bureau of Meteorology